禽流感危机下肉鸡产业市场状态分析*——基于互联网大数据和MS-VAR模型

[目的]为了有效应对禽流感冲击、维持肉鸡产业稳定健康发展。[方法]基于互联网大数据构建了禽流感舆情指数,选取2012年1月至2017年3月周度数据,通过MS-VAR模型分析了禽流感危机下肉鸡市场状态的转换特征以及不同市场状态下产业链价格传导关系。[结果]2012年以来可将肉鸡产业市场状态划分为危机状态和正常状态,肉鸡产业市场在两个市场状态下转换频繁;肉鸡产业危机市场状态和正常市场状态平均持续期分别为4.65周和9.05周;肉鸡市场在区制转移概率上存在明显的非对称特征;肉雏鸡、活鸡和白条鸡价格之间在危机状态下相关性小于正常市场状态下相关性;不同市场状态下肉鸡产业链价格传导存在差异;肉鸡产业市场在危机状态下不稳定程度明显增加。[结论]提出了加大对禽流感疫情的监测以及疫情处理能力,密切关注公众禽流感舆情动态变动情况,做好舆情引导,加强禽流感疫情科学知识的宣传,增强公众对禽流感的认知等对策建议。     

Time Inhomogeneous Multiple Volatility Modeling

Price variations at speculative markets exhibit positive autocorrelationand cross correlation. Due to large parameter spaces necessaryfor joint modeling of variances and covariances, multivariateparametric volatility models become easily intractable in practice.We propose an adaptive procedure that identifies periods ofsecond-order homogeneity for each moment in time. To overcomethe high dimensionality of the problem we transform the multivariateseries into a set of univariate processes. We discuss thoroughlythe implementation of the adaptive technique. Theoretical andMonte Carlo results are given. We provide two applications ofthe new method. For a bivariate exchange rate series we comparethe multivariate GARCH approach with our method and find thelatter to be more in line with the underlying assumption ofindependently distributed innovations. Analyzing a 23-dimensionalvector of asset returns we underscore the case for adaptivemodeling in high-dimensional systems.     

Information Flows across Markets: Evidence from China–Backed Stocks Dual–Listed in Hong Kong and New York

Using a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, we examine patterns of information flows for China–backed stocks that are cross–listed on exchanges in Hong Kong and New York. Results analyzing the dual–listed stocks indicate significant mutual feedback of information between domestic (Hong Kong) and offshore (New York) markets in terms of pricing and volatility. Stocks listed on the domestic market appear to play a more significant role of information transmission in the pricing process, whereas stocks listed on the offshore market play a bigger role in volatility spillover.     

Dynamic and asymmetric impacts of macroeconomic fundamentals on an integrated stock market

A large body of evidence indicates that macroeconomic and financial variables are dynamically interrelated. In an international setup, we analyze the transmission mechanisms of macroeconomic shocks on the stock market of a small open economy in an increasingly integrated world. We use a time-varying vector error correction model (VECM) that allows analysis of asymmetric impacts that depend on the state of the business cycle. A special focus is directed on monetary policy surprises, where we find that foreign shocks exert a strong influence on an integrated stock market, and that the stage of the business cycle heavily affects the signals of the shocks.     

高速移动数据传输新标准IEEE 802.20

介绍了未来高速移动通信新标准IEEE802．20的总体概况，具体分析了IEEE802．20的技术特性、系统参考结构以及系统的组成模型，并对IEEE802．20标准前景分析与展望进行了详细描述。     

以扩大内需促进就业问题研究

随着我国经济进入新的发展阶段后,投资对劳动力逐渐显现出排挤作用,出口也由其发展前景受限而对劳动力的吸纳作用减弱。而内需由于其对劳动密集型产业产品的需求,对就业有很强的带动作用。本文将论述以内需扩大就业的必要性,找出其中存在的问题,并提出相应建议。     

我国货币政策传导机制:阻梗现象与制度安排

完善的货币政策传导机制是任何一种稳定发展的经济所必须的，是健康经济的重要标志之一。近年来，由于我国经济金融运行中出现的种种客观因素的限制，货币政策尚未达到其预期效果。究其原因，主要是货币政策传导机制不畅减弱了货币政策的效果。因此，改善货币政策传导机制的措施应该从消除制度性障碍入手。     

对欠发达地区货币传导扭曲的实证分析

我国货币政策对生产活动的影响主要通过银行贷款渠道.1997年央行从松货币政策的措施实施以来,全国与西北贷款规模相对差异的拉大、投资规模相对差异的缩小及资本形成率差异增大.本文以银行贷款渠道为例对西北地区货币政策传导进行分析,得出货币政策效果差异的直接原因是特定的基础货币投放机制和西北地区过度的信贷萎缩,根本原因在于西北地区经济基础差,投资收益率低,商业银行机构撒并和信贷策略调整,民间投资不足等因素.     

我国货币政策传导机制的实证研究

信贷市场是我国货币政策传导的主渠道，但贷款使用效率偏低，信贷市场在货币政策传导中面临来自商业银行和微观经济主体的障碍；利率下调减轻了企业负担，降低了债券发行成本，促进了储蓄分流，但储蓄、投资的利率弹性不大；我国证券市场主要是一个筹资场所，功能不全，货币政策传导作用有限；我国外汇市场是一个有管制的市场，人民币汇率“管理有余、浮动不足”，汇率机制在货币政策传导中的作用不大。